Dealer Survey Shows Increased Optimism
The seventh annual Kerrigan Advisors Dealer Survey found that auto dealers by and large expect no change in their business outlook this year, as well as no change to their dealership valuations. In fact, 24% of dealers expect their valuations to increase, a 41% improvement over last year. And only 16% expect a decline in valuations, down 52% from last year. According to Kerrigan, that marks the first improvement in valuation expectations since the pandemic days of 2021 and the first time since then that more dealers expect an increase in valuation rather than a decrease.
The poll by the sell-side firm assesses dealer sentiment on the future value of their businesses, franchise earnings and valuation expectations. The 2025 survey also explored currently pressing issues in the auto retail industry, such as artificial intelligence and tariffs.
Dealers participating in the survey reported having a more optimistic view of profitability this year compared to 2025. Thirty-two percent said they expect a rise in profits, a 129% increase from last year. And only 20% of dealers expect a decline in profitability, down from 43% last year.
Despite the rise of U.S. tariffs in 2025, 43% of dealers reported that tariffs had no impact on their businesses. In fact, in a surprising eight-to-one ratio, 16% of dealers said they are planning to acquire more dealerships, and only 2% said they’re planning to sell more dealerships as a result of tariffs.
The rise in AI in auto retail is reflected in the survey data, as 43% of dealers reported they are already using AI in their businesses and 47% plan to do so in the future. Kerrigan Advisors “expects AI to have a meaningful impact on industry results in 2026 and beyond.”
Toyota and Lexus rank at the top once again with the highest valuation increase expectations, the most trust and highest buyer demand.
Overall, domestic franchises increased in valuation expectations while import expectations declined. Kerrigan speculated that that might be a product of the Trump administration’s push for domestic manufacturing.