Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index Increases 0.7 Points in November

The seasonally adjusted Index increased slightly from October, with raw index values declining less than usual for this time of year. - IMAGE: Black Book

The seasonally adjusted Index increased slightly from October, with raw index values declining less than usual for this time of year.

IMAGE: Black Book

LAWRENCEVILLE, Georgia — Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for November 2020 (130.6), a 0.7-point increase from October (129.9). Click here to obtain a copy of the latest index data.

We project the weakening of most of the segments this winter, including Full-size Pickups, without a substantial second Federal stimulus as the economy remains weak and there is an expected increase of used supply.

“The Market Level Index increased slightly in November,” said Alex Yurchenko, Senior Vice President, Data Science. “Most of the segments depreciated at a slower rate than we have seen in the past at this time of the year. The Wholesale market is still adjusting to shortages of supply due to abnormally low repossession rates, low levels of rental units remarketing (as rental fleet companies were able to right-size their inventory prior to October), and a decrease of trade-in volume at the auctions (as dealers kept more of that inventory outside of wholesale market). We project the weakening of most of the segments this winter, including Full-size Pickups, without a substantial second Federal stimulus as the economy remains weak and there is an expected increase of used supply.”  

The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values. 

  The Index dates to January 2005, where Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market. During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1% while during 2016, the index fell by just 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123.0 by the end of the year as the economy picked up steam and used vehicle values rose higher. It continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May of 2014 when it hit a peak of 128.1. 

  To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, please click here.  

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