Black Book July’s Used Vehicle Retention Index Shows First Drop in 2021
As wholesale prices started to decline in July, the seasonally adjusted Retention Index reversed the trend for the first time this year and decrease to 161.8 points.
LAWRENCEVILLE, Georgia – Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for July 2021 which descended to 161.8 points, a 4.2 point (or 2.6%) decrease from June (166.0). The Index currently stands 28.4% above where it was the same time last year, during the recovery of the used market, after COVID-19 related closures in the Spring of 2020.
“Wholesale prices peaked in June and declined every week in July, with accelerating decline in the second half of the month,” said Alex Yurchenko, Chief Data Science Officer at Black Book. “Inventory of new vehicles continued to drop almost daily as the chip shortage continues to cause decreases in production levels. Available used inventory stabilized in July as demand leveled off with record high used retail prices. We expect wholesale and retail prices for used vehicles to decline in August as COVID cases continue to increase and consumer confidence takes a temporary dip, due to worries about the pandemic”
The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values. To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, please click here.
Originally posted on F&I and Showroom